"It's all Greek to me" is likely the phrase most uttered by market participants over the past few days. The successful votes in Greece's parliament spurred broad-based capital market momentum across the globe as the debt-ridden country veered away from the preverbal default cliff.
The question today is will it continue.
Overall, volume still remains light, underscoring enduring macro uncertainties from the looming debt ceiling vote to signs of weakening in global economic activity.
However, the strong relative value argument inherent in the U.S. equity market, supported by good fundamentals and attractive valuations, continues to draw in investors with a longer-term investment horizon. Corporate balance sheets are flush with over a trillion dollars in cash, interest rates are expected to remain low, and unemployment is heading in the right direction (albeit at a crawling pace). Investors now have their sights on the second quarter earnings season that kicks off this month, hoping to glean more clarity regarding the second half outlook.
U.S. equity futures are trading roughly flat this morning, taking cues from mixed global markets. The recent, positive momentum slowed in Asian and European trading Friday following successive, dour manufacturing surveys.
First and foremost was China's news that manufacturing activity in that country hit its lowest level in more than two years as the government's efforts to temper inflation slows economic activity. The Shanghai B Share Index is tracking in bear territory, losing nearly 15% over the last three months. In Europe, the final readings for the eurozone manufacturing surveys came in on target, but the reading in the UK was weaker than expected, suggesting a slowdown from the prior months.
Market participants in the U.S. are eyeing the ISM Manufacturing report that hits the wires at 10:00 a.m. ET. The consensus is 51.1 versus the prior of 53.5. The report follows a strong Chicago PMI figure Thursday, the results of which buoyed U.S. stocks.
Treasuries are showing some strength after several days of yields pushing
higher. Still, the 10-year is 30 bps off its low from Monday and just 7
bps off its high for the week ? not exactly what the Treasury bulls were looking
for. But, in a headline-driven world, it is about the best that can be
expected. In addition, we find little comfort in a sell-off initiated by
the fact the Greece is not going to default? at least not yet. Imagine how
high yields would have run if they would have announced a plan that actually
fixed the problem.
This could be a bit of a quiet day as many trading floors will be working with a
skeleton staff. However, there could be some interesting action after the
economic numbers are released as any significant surprise could spur
participants to lower their exposure before the three-day weekend. Like we
said, we live in a headline-driven world right now.
The euro, which has suffered severe swings at the hands of Greek politicians,
is trading at 1.4486 this morning. The U.S. Dollar Index is holding at 74.78,
which is supportive for the commodity complex.
Crude oil gained over 3.6% over
the last week, and is currently trading just under $94 per
barrel. The loss of Libyan oil and a tightening of the global oil markets
continue to provide a floor of support, despite news of the IEA supply infusion
and Saudi Arabia's promise to keep markets well supplied.
In electronic
trading, corn is at
$5.82 per bushel. It has lost nearly 8% over the last week after reaching
a high of $8/bu in mid-June. The decline is one of the biggest since October 2008
and is due to higher-than-expected acreage and inventory reports in the U.S.
Thursday.
--Kimberly DuBord, Briefing.com
Kimberly DuBord is the Director of Research for Briefing Research, Briefing.com's institutional research service. To request a free trial please email researchsales@briefing.com.






