If you want to maintain your sanity today, turn off the business channels and don't read anything that has to do with the capital markets (except Briefing.com of course). Headlines are coming out of left field that are providing relief one minute and providing an Excedrin moment the next. In short, things are ridiculous right now.
Yesterday, the market surged late on a Financial Times report that China might be contemplating an investment in Italy's bonds or taking a strategic stake in Italian companies. That news suddenly made everything from Duke Energy (DUK) to Microsoft (MSFT) more valuable.
Today, the S&P futures were down more than 13 points following a weak Italian bond auction that certainly didn't have China's invisible hand in it, but they rallied back to positive territory on a Reuters report that French President Sarkozy and German Chancellor Merkel had a phone conversation in which it was acknowledged they are "determined to do what is necessary to calm the crisis of confidence over Greece and the euro zone." It was further noted that they would be making their positions public today.
We've lost count on the number of times these two leaders have reportedly offered their backing for Greece and the number of times Ms. Merkel has then subsequently said something that hints at wavering support. Nonetheless, the futures market got jazzed up by the report only to fall back again on a headline that there will not be a public statement today, according to President Sarkozy's office.
We suppose "today" is the operative word in that last sentence, so the market will be waiting anxiously for some enlightenment. Until then, it will be rotating on a headline axis between fear and loathing and hope and salvation.
Call it headline risk. Call it headline hope. Call it whatever you want. Just don't call it sane market behavior.
Amid the insanity, Best Buy (BBY) reported its fiscal second quarter results this morning. The consumer electronics retailer came up six cents shy of the Capital IQ consensus estimate and said it expects FY12 earnings to be between $3.35 and $3.65 per share, including a $0.20 to $0.25 per share impact from share repurchases. Excluding the share repurchases, guidance is below the company's prior outlook for earnings to be between $3.30 and $3.55 per share.
Despite the lowered guidance, shares of BBY are trading up 1.8% in pre-market action in a sell-the-rumor-buy-the-news response. Prior to its report, shares of BBY had dropped 22% since July 1.
The S&P futures bumped up some after Best Buy reported, perhaps because the response to it has been regarded as somewhat of a bottoming signal.
Then again, the seeming resilience of the futures market could be a carryover response form yesterday in which participants were heartened by the ability of the S&P 500 to close above technical support at the 1140 mark.
Frankly, we don't know.
This is a market that is all over the map -- literally -- with headlines out of China, the U.S., and Europe in particular driving things.
At the moment, the S&P futures are in-line with fair value, suggesting a relatively flat start for the cash market. Wait a minute or two and you are likely to hear that indication has changed. That is, if you bother to turn on the business channels or read the news today.
--Patrick J. O'Hare, Briefing.com
Patrick J. O'Hare is Chief Market Analyst for Briefing Research, Briefing.com's institutional research service. To request a free trial, please email researchsales@briefing.com.






